Heat Checks & Hail Marys – Alabama's Coaching Choice and the Benefits of Realignment

Mike Cagley, Co-Host Sports Spectacular and Big Sports Radio

October 7, 2024

The new B1G is so big, there is little clarity after the first two weekends of conference play other than the fact that everyone is chasing the Buckeyes.

Hail Mary #1 – Kalen DeBoer is a Bad Hire?

There are already those who feel Kalen DeBoer is not the right choice to command the Alabama football program now that Nick Saban has retired to the broadcast booth. In sports, whether high school, college or pro, it’s not a great idea to follow a legend. Now, we’re seeing that Kalen DeBoer is dealing with an even worse situation – replacing the GOAT. And make no mistake, Nick Saban is the greatest of all time when it comes to college football coaches.

We’re now hearing from some quarters that Kalen DeBoer may not have what is needed to be the head coach at Alabama despite his 108-13 record and 2^nd place finish in the College Football Playoff (CFP) last season with the loss to Michigan. The upset loss to Vanderbilt has shaken both the Alabama fan base and the media covering the football juggernaut.

I don’t claim to know the future, but my sense is that a coach with DeBoer’s resume and ability to innovate is too good to write off this soon. That doesn’t mean he is a guaranteed success but to call him the Les Miles of Alabama is too soon.

There is no doubt the coach is the most critical person in a college football program. But, in today’s NIL world, there are many other moving pieces that are important. An AD who can plan and keep his program on the cutting edge of a miasma of changing rules, an NIL organization that can close the deal for the dollars that feed successful recruiting, an ability to evaluate talent (both high school and portal-based), facilities that are up-to-date and competitive (not needing a capital infusion), and a little luck like a beneficial schedule.

DeBoer may not be the answer at Alabama, but it’s too soon to know with certainty and he’s got all the support around him necessary to succeed. The need to get clicks and try to be the first to predict his demise is a game I’d rather not play. Time will tell us soon enough.

Hail Mary #2 – The Benefits of Conference Realignment

A lot of folks don’t like the conference realignment that has occurred. I can see why.

There was a loss of regional rivalries due to conference affiliation changes – teams like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are in different conferences. The Pac 12 lost its four most athletically prominent schools. Travel costs are skyrocketing for a few schools. Conferences are being blown up and recreated in nearly real time.

But there is one huge advantage to this new conference alignment. The schedule. Let’s preview the matchups in the B1G alone this weekend:

7 pm Friday

• Northwestern (2-3, 0-2) at Maryland (3-2, 0-2) – this is a key game for a Maryland team that has played below expectations and still must face Oregon and Penn State on the road and USC, Rutgers and Iowa at home.

11 am Saturday

• Washington (4-2, 2-1) at Iowa (3-2, 1-1) – this is a game for two teams who entertained thoughts of “sneaking” into the CFP. On Saturday, one dream will die.
• Wisconsin (3-2, 1-1) at Rutgers (4-1, 1-1) – Luke Fickell is under pressure to reconstruct Wisconsin football to reach its previous highs using a modern college offense. A loss here shakes the faith of Wisconsin fans not wanting to go backwards. Rutgers has a schedule that only leaves them one currently ranked team, Illinois in November. An 11-win season is a possibility. This is a big game for both teams.

2:30 pm Saturday

• #4 Penn State (5-0, 2-0) at USC (3-2, 1-2) – James Franklin is pushing for this team to make its first CFP appearance. Meanwhile, Lincoln Riley is figuring out that the B1G is a lot tougher than he thought it was.
• Purdue (1-4, 0-2) at #23 Illinois (4-1, 1-1) – Ryan Walters comes into this game with a swirl of questions surrounding his team and its progress during year two of his tenure. Bret Bielema and the Illini are looking to avoid the type of head scratching losses that turned a 7-1 start to an 8-4 finish in 2022.

6:30 pm Saturday

• #2 Ohio State (5-0, 2-0) at #3 Oregon (5-0, 2-0) - the current college football regular season game of the year. Not much more to say.

8 pm Saturday

• Minnesota (3-3, 1-2) at UCLA (1-4, 0-3) – okay, they can’t all be winners, though Minnesota is looking to start a streak. They beat USC and almost came back to beat Michigan. UCLA is in survival mode.

This is a great slate of games. The powers that be needed great games to sell to their various network partners. With 18 games, the B1G has them.

Hail Mary #3 – A Bit of a Shake Up in Team Tiers

At the five-game mark, the B1G is starting to differentiate teams – at least into rough tiers.

• Tier 1 - It’s my opinion that Ohio State is the clear leader and to this point, seems to be a team on a level by themselves in the B1G. Their only peers seem to be Alabama, Texas and Georgia.
• Tier 2 - Penn State and Oregon are two teams that are proven contenders. Oregon seems to be heating up after a slow start and has a chance to dethrone the Buckeyes. Penn State must keep rolling.
• Tier 3A – Indiana, Rutgers and Illinois – teams that are hitting above their pre-season weight class. Indiana and Rutgers have softer schedules – can these teams maintain their pace?
• Tier 3B - Michigan and USC are teams expected to be good with solid rosters.
• Tier 4 – Washington, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Iowa – a huge week for these team who harbor big bowl dreams.
• Tier 5 – Minnesota, Michigan State, Maryland and Northwestern – Minnesota looking to climb up and the rest trying to avoid a fall.
• Tier 6 – UCLA and Purdue are two teams that look bad. In this “win today” collegiate sports environment, will these coaches get a chance to build up their teams, or could patience expire, and an AD decides to go in a different direction?