Mike Cagley, Co-Host Sports Spectacular and Big Sports Radio
Cover photo courtesy: Eric Evans Photography / Chris Poulsen
November 10, 2024
The CFP race is getting crazier each weekend. This week, #3 Georgia and #4 Miami were beaten, making the CFP race even more enthralling for next week. To make it more interesting - #8 Indiana and #9 BYU each won by less than one score. Walking on the razor’s edge is going to be a weekly event as the field is narrowed to 12 teams.
At the same time, Illinois basketball had a heck of a week with the men’s team showing off a staggeringly effective offense (averaging 101 points a game) and the women’s team knocking off #19 Florida State.
On the football side, the 6-3 Illini had a week off to realign their effort to knock off Michigan State in the last home game on November 16.
This year’s results might allow the B1G and the SEC to dodge a bullet when it comes to the relationship between the two conferences. Both powerhouses have decided that getting along with one another is better than fighting. It appears they look at the rest of the sport as competition for tournament berths in both the football and basketball season-ending tournaments.
As the season started, many forecast some friction between the two conferences when the College Football Playoff (CFP) bids came out. With millions of dollars on the line in the form of CFP bids, many assumed there would be no way to avoid having arguments like “a 2-loss SEC team is better than a 1-loss B1G team” or “a 3-loss SEC team is better than a 2-loss B1G team.”
If those arguments are had this season, it looks like they will be about seeding, not the actual CFP bid.
Let’s look at what we can safely assume:
This means there are six more openings for the tournament. How will they be divided up?
For the most part, teams that are at the top of the B1G and SEC don’t play each other for the rest of the regular season. Of the CFP contenders only 3 games are played amongst each other: Indiana at Ohio State, Tennessee at Georgia and Texas at Texas A&M. This means determining who gets into the conference championship games could be due to crazy tiebreakers being enacted – including the unlikely but enticing possibility of an old-fashioned coin flip to determine who plays in those games.
If Georgia and Texas A&M win (the home teams) and in all other games the SEC favorites win, you could have 7 teams at 10-2.
If Ohio State beats Indiana and favorites run the table in conference matchups, the B1G would have one undefeated team along with three 1-loss teams.
As it stands right now, the B1G will get their 3 at-large bids leaving 3 more for the SEC. There will be balance. One wonders with the possibility of maybe more 10-2 SEC teams missing the tournament, can a 16-team tournament be implemented sooner rather than later?
The Illini Men’s Basketball team has done what good teams do:
The team is ahead of where I would’ve expected them from an offensive standpoint. Too often, we’ve watched as Illini teams struggled with a game or two with a team that was not expected to cause the Illini major problems. This team has avoided that.
One can’t get too carried away with optimism as defensively they’ve not been tested since Ole Miss. I like that Illinois is forcing teams to shoot long 2’s. The physicality of Ole Miss at both ends of the court will be replicated in the B1G and in some of their tough non-conference games.
The Illini need to keep progressing. We will know much more after the Alabama game a week from Wednesday as steel sharpens steel.
Let’s look at a few player thoughts:
I’ve said it over and over. This team has a higher ceiling than last season, but with this many transfers/freshmen, they also have a lower floor. If they had another Terrence Shannon Jr, this Illini team would be a title favorite. Fortunately, with the talent they have, maybe they’ll develop another dominant player by tournament time.
After week 11, the top tiers are almost locked. Only the game between Indiana traveling to Ohio State is a question mark and a difference maker. An upset can change this, but the way the top 4 teams are playing – upsets look to be almost impossible.
Here is a crazy stat – there are 13 teams in the 18-team league that have between 4 and 6 wins this season. Of these 13 teams, only one team, Illinois, has the chance to win 9 games. The 9 conference games played by the B1G make for less need of tiebreakers but also for a lower number of teams winning 9 or more games like one sees in the SEC with its eight conference games. One wonders if the SEC will stay the same or increase their conference games by one and get paid a lot more broadcasting dollars.
According to the AP poll, the B1G now has four of the top 5 teams in the country. As things stand, the B1G could do very well in the seeding for the CFP. At that point, it's win and move on to prove how good their team and their conference is.
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