Mike Cagley, Co-Host Sports Spectacular and Big Sports Radio
November 17, 2024
The College Football Playoff (CFP) brawling for seeding is going to go down to the final week – with teams in the B1G and SEC knowing they must avoid being upset to have a chance to make the 16-team field. Trying to avoid upsets may not work based upon Saturday’s results showing multiple losses by Top 25 teams:
The expansion to 12-teams has been a rousing success as many teams are key playing games that keep college football fans tuned in and entertained long after they would’ve been eliminated from a 4-team playoff. Anything that keeps teams and fans engaged to this level is more akin to the NFL than any other major sport.
The November 23rd weekend already features a few key games that have attracted my attention:
It will be another magnificent weekend for college football fans.
I still believe this year’s results will allow the B1G and the SEC to dodge a bullet when it comes to the relationship between the two conferences. The key is if there are more than 4 SEC teams with 2 losses. If so, then it’s “no holds barred” in pro wrestling terms.
The SEC has 5 teams with 2 losses along with 1 team with 1 loss. Meanwhile the B1G has 2 teams with 1 loss and 2 undefeated teams. Indiana takes on Ohio State this coming weekend, so the B1G might be down to one undefeated team. If Ohio State were to win, and the SEC has more than 4 teams with 2 losses, expect a PR campaign to focus on Indiana and Penn State (both 1 loss teams in this scenario) not having a strong enough schedule to be invited to the CFP ahead of a 2-loss SEC team.
Notre Dame being upset is a way to “find” another bid for the B1G/SEC to compete for one of their teams. If Notre Dame stays on course, and it looks like they will, the B1G and SEC may need to argue for how to split of the 8 at large bids. As it stands now, the B1G can claim four, but if the SEC has six 2-loss teams, you can expect that 4-4 split to be hotly contested by the SEC. The SEC will push for a 5-3 split, or even a 6-2 split. The ACC and Big 12 will only get one team each. That much is clear.
Hot Take #1 – Deion Sanders talked candidly about his recruiting strategies last week and I’m not sure why it didn’t get more attention. To paraphrase Coach Prime, if you sign 25 high schoolers, only 4 or 5 play, then 20 guys redshirt and 10 leave through portal, so why not just focus on 10 freshmen that you expect to play? He’s not worrying about development – CU only recruits those who will play.
The implication is that if you get 10 good freshmen and continually draw in high talent from the transfer portal, you don’t need as many freshmen. Some worry this method will not have as much depth as the "recruit many more freshmen each year and develop them" model. And some may be correct. To me, Coach Prime is taking the roster from the collegiate 85 to a number closer to the NFL’s 53. If you don’t miss on assessments and have a sizable NIL budget, he just may be correct.
Hot Take #2 – Indiana executed a genius move in offering Kurt Cignetti an 8-year deal compensating him around $8 million a year. If the Hoosiers make it to the CFP this year, Cignetti will be too hard to hire for even the bluest of bluebloods because they would have wait until the first round CFP games are over on December 21st (at the earliest) to secure his services.
This would make the portal season a true flop for the hiring team as they would want a jump on the portal that opens on December 9th and closes on December 28th this year. I might be proven wrong, but I cannot see Cignetti walking out on the Hoosiers if they were in the CFP. Great move by the Hoosiers to secure a coach that is talented, even if the odds are he’ll never get such a favorable schedule again. If an SEC blueblood wants Cignetti, they’ll have to overpay.
Hot Take #3 – As a long time Illini fan, Bret Bielema has really turned around the near comatose Illini football program he was handed four years ago. Bielema’s accomplishments are considerable when you look back at the mess that is Illini football history.
Better yet look at the number of wins the program has in the 20s – knowing that one season 2020 was under Lovie Smith and this season 2024 isn’t over yet. As a comparison, Ohio State won 117 games in the 2010s.
There’s reason to believe the Illini football program is moving up in the world – even though the B1G is more competitive than ever.
Hot Take #4 – The relationships between college football and basketball coaches to their ADs have changed dramatically. Why do I say that? With the increased NIL funding needs, and the concern as to how schools are going to meet the projected $22 million dollars needed annually to pay salary cap requirements, ADs must learn how to hire successful coaches. The ability to go to a donor and ask for millions of dollars to pay for a hiring mistake may not only end a coach’s career but take down the AD who made that mistake as well. Better brush up on your hiring skills ADs. For those of you who are watching, I’ve hired successfully in different industries and disciplines for over 25 years. I am willing to consult for a lot less than you’ll pay for an embarrassing buyout.
Hot Take #5 – I’m not a fan of either USC or Nebraska. I also don’t hate either team. That being said, how do you not call defensive pass interference on that last play? I’m all for allowing teams to “settle it themselves” but that was a ridiculous non-call.
After week 12, the big game between Indiana traveling to Ohio State is finally upon us. This game is critical as Ohio State doesn’t want to fall into the SEC 2-loss team miasma & Indiana may be at risk with a single loss.
According to the AP poll, the B1G still has four of the top 5 teams in the country. Illinois has jumped into the AP poll at 24 joining South Carolina as the only two 3 loss teams to be ranked.
The B1G is pushing to land 4 teams in the CFP. It will be an uphill battle as the SEC will certainly lobby against the B1G using the strength of schedule argument against B1G schools.
The SEC has 5 of the top 10 teams and 7 teams ranked in the AP Top 25 poll.
Let the PR battle begin!
