Mike Cagley, Co-Host IlliniGuys Sports Spectacular & Big Sports Radio
September 15, 2024
The first quarter of the college football season has concluded. The B1G is as crazy as we thought it would be. Ohio State looks like Ohio State. Michigan looks like they need a QB - and where's their defense. Oregon seems to have stopped hitting the snooze button. Let's talk some college football.
Wisconsin is in year two of Luke Fickell and it is too soon to judge whether he will be successful or not. I do wonder if the choice to go away from the traditional identity of the team was a good one. The theory is that in today's game the Badgers would be unable to "bulldoze" their way to the top of the B1G as they have been able to do in the past. That may be true. But to go away from the style play and away from the "Wisconsin" linemen that the state of appears to produce is a choice the certainly makes the short-term success of the program much riskier than in the past. I'm old enough to remember when Wisconsin football stunk. I wonder how older Badger fans are dealing with this program transition as I assume they cannot bear to think of returning to those pre-Alvarez days. Pivoting programs from one direction to another is a difficult task to perform in today's impatient world. Will Fickell be allowed the time to do what he intends to do?
How good is Iowa this season? As expected, the Hawkeyes defeated Troy who came into the game 0-2. It wasn't expected that the Hawkeyes would be down at the half 14-10. The Hawkeyes have arguably the weakest schedule in the B1G this season (Rutgers and Indiana might give them a run for their money) but the offense seems to be as non-descript as it's been under Brian Ferentz. The bright spot for Iowa is they play Ohio State on October 5th for their first battle against a ranked team. Despite the new 18 team B1G, the Hawkeyes won't face another ranked team until Nebraska on November 29. If Nebraska is as good as advertised (and they haven't played anyone good, yet) the Hawkeyes might only play 2 ranked teams. If Nebraska isn't as good as they appear, the Hawkeyes might only face one ranked team. This is a year to capitalize on a weak schedule. The Hawkeyes should be able to go 10-2 or 9-3 at the worst - if their offense has any competence.
UCLA was supposed to kick off their B1G debut with a bang. Unfortunately, the bang was Indiana kicking down the front door and stomping all over the Bruins in a 42-13 blowout of the Los Angeles-based Bruins. Indiana Coach Curt Cignetti comes to the B1G after a spectacular run at James Madison as a head coach. He also worked under Nick Saban as a part of his original staff at Alabama from 2007 - 2010. He is also a no-nonsense type of coach. Armed with an effective off-season using the transfer portal and a soft B1G schedule, Indiana looks like it could be the surprise team of the B1G this season. The Hoosiers play Nebraska and Michigan at home and Ohio State on the road. They are set up for success. I need to mention that the IlliniGuys own Matt Stevens has been high on Cignetti as a coach and pointed out very early on that the Hoosiers could be a tough team to deal with this season before many were talking about the Hoosiers.
Michigan and Purdue both have been beaten decisively by opponents coming into their home stadiums (Texas to Michigan & Notre Dame to Purdue). Michigan's vaunted defense has yet to play at the high level expected. Veteran Michigan media had viewed this season's defense as "generationally good" and that hasn't happened yet. If and/or when the defense arrives, Michigan will be a threat on any given Saturday, but the offense must improve. How the Wolverines decided to avoid the transfer portal to add an experienced quarterback to the mix is beyond me. We've seen with multiple teams that having a bad quarterback is unsustainable in the B1G - especially if you have title aspirations. Purdue on the other hand was expected to be bad, but losing 66-7 to a Notre Dame team that lost to NIU bad? Ouch. Ryan Walters has a lot to fix and the B1G didn't gift him an Indiana or Iowa schedule. Sometimes bad luck is really bad.
A long time ago a mentor of mine told me that I must always remember that Successful People Do the Things that Make Them Successful. When I first heard that, I thought it was a bit of nonsense that sounded semi-intellectual. Years later, after I had a chance to hire and work with different people, I actually understood what he meant and now elevate that to a thought to live by. The reason people are successful isn't a simple catch all - a person needs talent, dedication, a work ethic, etc. to be a success. But, in any field where you have to build skills and knowledge, a person has habits that lead him or her to being successful beyond just genetic advantages and you can see these habits in their day-to-day behavior. You don't see that behavior in people who are not successful. Teams are the same way.
Successful teams find a way to go on the road and win big games. They find ways to beat ranked teams. If you look back at the great years in the Illini past, they typically involve memories like the 2007 team beating #21 Penn State 27-20 & #5 Wisconsin 31-26 , both at home. That same Illini team went on the road to defeat #1 Ohio State 28-21. Teams that are successful find a way to beat ranked teams both at home and on the road.
The Illini season will not be over, or a failure, if they lose to Nebraska on Friday night. It is not the mythic "must win" game. This game does provide the Illini team with the opportunity to build the habits of successful Illini teams of the past. They have the chance to focus on the task at hand, play in front of a hostile crowd, execute on a nationally televised game on a Friday night and do what successful teams do - win on the road against a ranked team.
With a B1G schedule, the Illini will have other chances to do this very thing - a road game against #8 Penn State follows the very next week and a road trip to B1G newcomer #9 Oregon comes on October 26. Friday's game against a resurgent and confident Nebraska team offers the Illini a chance to do what successful teams do. Will they have the discipline, work ethic and maybe a bit of nice-to-have luck to pull off the victory? Stay tuned to see they're successful.
Both Georgia and Alabama have bye weeks next week as they prepare for their massive battle on September 28th at Alabama. It's probably a happy co-incidence that both teams are off next week. We will see if momentum means anything as Georgia needed a debatable decision by Mark Stoops to punt the ball and allow Georgia to run out the clock to preserve a 13-12 win for the Bulldogs. Meanwhile, the Tide rolled into Madison and destroyed the Luke Fickell identity-transitioning Badger team 42-10. The Badgers haven't been beaten that bad at home since a 48-7 defeat at the hands of Penn State in 2008. Two weeks is a long time to allow Kirby Smart to gameplan against a team and Alabama has won 8 of the last 9 meetings, but there's no Nick Saban prowling the Alabama sidelines. This is the time for Kalen DeBoer to put his stamp on this heated rivalry.
Notre Dame didn't prove much by beating a half dead Purdue 66-7. While my prediction that Notre Dame will run the table after their win over Texas A&M died an early death, I still think their schedule is relatively weak by Notre Dame standards. USC looks like they could be real challenge, but with Florida State not being very good, it looks like a Louisville game and the USC game make up a 2-game schedule of tough challenges. If only Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman can find a way to avoid those head shaking upsets.
Florida State and Florida continue to prove that just because you're in Florida doesn't mean that all that high school talent will guarantee success. Florida State is in a fog and this season will be something to be dissected by those trying to understand just what happened to a team that looked to have a bright future. Whatever is going on behind the scenes must be a doozy as the Florida State team has the physical talent needed to be successful in the ACC. Normally, I'd say FSU will get their mojo back against Cal next Saturday, but Cal defeating Auburn has thrown off by Bad-O-Meter. Meanwhile, Florida has the toughest schedule ever seen the last seven weeks: at #7 Tennessee, vs Kentucky, vs #1 Georgia, at #2 Texas, vs #16 LSU, vs #5 Ole Miss, and at Florida State (now a surprising "easy" game). Billy Napier and his Gators really needed to go 5-0 or 4-1 heading into that meat grinder to have a chance at saving his job. They're now 1-2 - but with games against struggling Mississippi State and UCF, the Gators might be 3-2. I can't see a future that has Billy Napier as the head coach of the Gators after December 1st. For me, that hasn't changed since the day we got to see the Florida schedule.
